9 AI Search Trends That Will Reshape Algorithms in 2026

Summary
AI SERP changes in 2025 shift clicks into AI Overviews, where users get direct answers with citations and conversational follow-ups, driving fewer traditional clicks on informational queries. Independent studies show Semrush 13.14% AIO prevalence, Ahrefs 34.5% CTR loss for position one, Search Engine Journal drop from 28% to 19%, and BrightEdge reporting 54% citation overlap with organic rankings. The article compares Google AI Overviews, Bing Copilot Search, and Perplexity, outlines inclusion signals like freshness, entity schema, branded mentions, and passage extractability, and provides an African SME measurement stack with weekly KPIs for AIO inclusion and citation share.

AI SERP changes in 2025 represent substantive shifts rather than superficial updates. Users increasingly receive direct answers, citations, and follow-up options, resulting in fewer traditional clicks, particularly for informational queries. Multiple independent studies have quantified the decline in click-through rate (CTR) where AI Overviews are present. For example, Ahrefs reports a 34.5% decrease in CTR for the top organic result on affected queries, while Search Engine Journal notes a drop from 28% to 19% in position one following the broader rollout. These findings align with publisher reports and ongoing regulatory scrutiny.

This report consolidates current evidence, explains the criteria for inclusion and citation, and outlines a measurement framework suitable for weekly monitoring. The analysis is tailored for African SMEs and agencies, providing a comparative assessment of Google, Bing Copilot Search, and Perplexity.

 

Analysis Overview

Key Findings on AI SERP Changes in 2025

• AI Overviews account for a meaningful share of searches, driven by informational intent, with commercial coverage rising. Semrush measured a 13.14 % prevalence in March 2025 and an 88 % informational intent in a single data cut.
• CTR loss is most pronounced where AI Overviews are triggered. Ahrefs measured a 34% decrease for top results. Multiple studies consistently report a downward trend. Publisher groups in the UK and EU have escalated complaints in response to significant traffic reductions.
• Citation overlap between AI Overviews and classic organic rankings is growing. BrightEdge’s 16-month study shows an overlap of 54 %, though variance by vertical remains significant.
• Bing Copilot Search blends generative answers with explicit inline citations. The layout differs from Google in where summaries sit and how source lists expand.
• The African context shifted in August, as Google’s AI Mode rollout expanded to South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya. According to Google’s global blog, AI Overviews now cover more than 200 countries and over 40 languages.

 

Where AI Overviews appear and how often

The latest public datasets put AI Overviews in the low-to-mid teens as a share of searches, primarily informational. Semrush observed 13.14 % in March 2025 with a heavy informational skew. Conductor’s monthly study tracks prevalence and device effects across 118 million queries, confirming volatility by vertical and month. SISTRIX reports double-digit visibility in some markets, such as the UK.

Google’s updates confirm global expansion to more than 200 countries and 40 languages, with usage growth tied to AI Mode and AI Overviews. Expect more inventory where queries require multi-step reasoning.

 

CTR and behaviour shifts by query type

Independent datasets align with the direction of click movement:

• Ahrefs: minus 34.5 % average CTR for position one on informational queries when AI Overviews are present
• Search Engine Journal: top result CTR moving from 28 % to 1 % post rollout
• Semrush: Informational queries are the primary trigger for AI Overviews, which corresponds to zero-click behavior patterns.
• Publisher studies and complaints indicate a significant impact on traffic, particularly for news. UK findings reported steep declines when links sit below summaries.

Google reports that AI features increase overall Search volume and total site traffic. Its Q3 remarks highlight more AI-led sessions and growth in commercial queries. Treat this as ecosystem-level data that may not reflect outcomes for specific publishers in specific SERPs.

 

Google vs Bing Copilot vs Perplexity layouts

• Google uses AI Overviews above organic results, with linked sources embedded in the panel and AI Mode as a dedicated tab for conversational follow-ups. Citations appear, yet layout prominence reduces classic result visibility. Expansion to 200-plus countries is official.
• Bing Copilot Search merges generative and traditional results with a persistent citation model and expandable cards. Copilot Search is a formal product with Microsoft documentation and rollout notes.s
• Perplexity is an answer engine with real-time citations at the centre of the UI and growing publisher partnerships. Content is synthesised from live pages with visible sources.

This divergence is significant for developing inclusion strategies and preparing weekly visibility reports. The same query may result in different brand citations across search engines, as demonstrated by BrightEdge’s cross-platform citation analysis.

 

How to earn inclusion and citations in AI Overviews?

Public documentation states there is no special markup for inclusion. The guidance is to follow Search Essentials and produce helpful, reliable content that can be cited. Evidence from independent analyses highlights these signals: recency, clear entities, and authoritative sourcing at the passage level.

• Freshness windows. Ahrefs analysed 17 million citations across multiple AI platforms and found a preference for fresher content. Third-party roundups point the same way. Set editorial cadences that support rapid refreshes for high-change topics.s
• Entity clarity and structured data. Pages with precise organisation, author schema, product markup, and consistent brand entity signals help Search engines surface relevant answers. Multiple industry guides show improved citation likelihood with better semantic clarity.
• Brand mentions and authority. Longitudinal studies show overlap with organic rankings rising to 54 %, and cross-engine tests show brand citation patterns differ. Earned mentions in credible sources strengthen the signals that AI systems surface

 

Signals that matter now, from freshness to branded mentions

Priority signals for 2025:

• Recency index. Publish new or refreshed answers within hours or days for fast-moving topics. Ahrefs’ large-scale citation study indicates a stronger propensity to cite more recent materials.
• Passage extractability. Detailed answers with definitions, steps, and evidence increase the likelihood that a model will quote and cite you. Industry evidence shows AI Overviews pull from deep sections, not only homepages.
• Entity disambiguation. The author, organisation, product, and location schemas help ground the work. Consistent names and IDs across the site, GBP, Wikidata, and social profiles reduce ambiguity.
• Branded mentions in credible sources. Cross-engine studies show differences in brand recommendations. Earning mentions on trusted sites correlates with citation probability.

 

Local AI SERP changes for African SMEs

AI Mode is now available in South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya. For local service queries, AI experiences are beginning to summarize options and cite sources alongside map units. More conversational flows that incorporate ratings, attributes, and first-party details are anticipated.

Availability follows Google’s May expansion to over 200 countries and more than 40 languages, with usage uplift reported in official updates. This unlocks a meaningful testbed for African brands to shape early inclusion patterns while competition is thinner.

SMEs face constraints such as high connectivity costs and inconsistent access, which influence the frequency and scope of content updates. Shorter, high-impact updates that meet freshness thresholds for core products and services are recommended over broad rewrites.

 

 

Metrics to track AI-first visibility weekly

Track classic SEO, then add AI-first KPIs. Use these as the minimum viable set:

1. AIO inclusion rate: percentage of target keywords where your brand is cited inside AI Overviews or Copilot summaries. Conductor and SISTRIX publish trackers that model prevalence and layout.
2. Citation share by engine: number of AI citations to your site divided by total citations for your tracked topics across Google, Bing, and Perplexity. BrightEdge’s insights show overlap patterns that change by vertical.l
3. Time to first citation: hours from publish or refresh to the first observed AI citation on tracked terms. Calibrate your editorial cadence to the observed decay curve in citation freshness studi.es
4. CTR by layout: compare clicks on pages with and without AI Overviews present. Use Search Console filters and controlled samples to isolate AIO impact, aligned with external CTR studies.
5. Local coverage rate: share of GBP categories and location queries that receive summarised mentions. Pair with geo-grid rank data where available.
6. Brand mention velocity: net new credible brand mentions per week across authoritative domains that AI systems often cite. Use these as leading indicators for citations inside the AI answer.s

 

Tooling to monitor ASearchch visibility across engines

• Conductor AIO analysis for 118M keywords, with visibility reporting on AIO and AI Mode
• BrightEdge Weekly AI Search Insights for overlap, vertical deltas, and citation composition
• SISTRIX AI Overview Hub to track AIO presence across countries, plus filters for layout analysis
• Semrush AIO Study for prevalence, intent splits, and zero-click context
• Bing Copilot Search documentation for layout and citation behaviour when building comparative dashboards
• Perplexity publisher and review coverage to understand citation mechanics and partnerships

 

Playbook for SMEs and agencies in 30, 60, 90 days

Days 1–30: Baseline and hardening

• Develop a tracked keyword set organized by intent. Identify informational queries that already trigger AI Overviews. Add a local pack of five to ten keywords for each priority city and neighborhood.
• Implement inclusion and citation tracking across Google, Bing Copilot, and Perplexity. Record AIO presence, page position, cited URL, and date observed.
• Update cornerstone pages to include extractable passages and entity markup. Ensure that the author and organization schema are complete and consistent with Google Business Profile (GBP) data.

Days 31–60: Freshness cadence and brand mentions

• Establish a weekly refresh loop for high-change topics to align with the freshness preference pattern.s
• Pursue earned placements on credible regional publishers and vertical authorities that AI systems already cite. Track brand mention velocity as a leading indicator for AI citation gains
• Expand local content with city and neighborhood variants linked to tangible attributes, such as pricing, eligibility, and service hours, that models can reference.

Days 61–90:Comparison, optimisation, andd scaling

• Compare citation share across search engines. Conduct A/B tests on passage structure, FAQ density, and schema variations. Measure changes in AIO inclusion over a two- to four-week period.
• Map CTR by layout presence using Search Console and analytics. Isolate changes where AI Overviews appear. Cross-reference with external CTR studies for context
• For African markets, prioritise AI Mode queries and mobile experiences. Monitor rollout notes and expand coverage to nearby countries as availability increases.

Risks, policies, and compliance checkpoints

• Quality issues and hallucinations can tarnish brand trust if models misstate facts using your content. Google has issued fixes and narrowed triggers after high-profile errors, yet monitoring remains essential.l
• Ecosystem tension with publishers is ongoing. Studies cite steep declines in traffic, and complaints have been received by regulators in the UK and the EU. This can catalyse changes to the layout or policy. Keep the change budgets read.y
• Product changes like AI Mode, Audio Overviews, and new ad formats can shift attention. Follow official posts and reputable tech press for rollout details.

 

What changes next in the coming 6 to 12 months

Expect more conversational flows, wider AI Mode access, and deeper integration with bookings and transactions. Microsoft is pushing Copilot across surfaces. Google reports query growth and is iterating on ppersonalisationfor AI Mode users. Perplexity continues to form publisher partnerships that clarify rights and revenue. Plan quarterly audits of inclusion, layout shifts, and vertical-specific changes.

 

Recommendations

1. Write for extractability
   Structure pages with crisp definitions, numbered steps, and short evidence-rich passages that can stand alone as quotes. Add FAQs that answer the exact questions your buyers ask. This aligns with how AI Overviews and Copilot summarise and cite
2. OOperationalisefreshness
   Adopt weekly refreshes on top pages and time-sensitive posts. Track time to first citation as a KPI and tune cadence for categories that decay fastest
3. Strengthen entity signals
   Complete Organisation Author, Product or Service, and LocalBusiness schema. Align names and IDs across GBP, social profiles, and knowledge sources to cut ambiguity.
4. Earn credible brand mention.s
   Target publications and industry hubs your audience already trusts. BrightEdge shows cross-engine differences in which brands get cited. Treat PR and partnerships as GEO inputs, not afterthoughts.
5. Measure AI-first visibility
   Stand up a weekly report with AIO inclusion rate, citation share by engine, time to citation, CTR by layout, local coverage rate, and brand mention velocity. Use Conductor, BrightEdge, and SISTRIX for tracking, plus manual spot checks.
6. Local playbook for African SMEs
   Optimise GBP, prioritise mobile speed, and publish concise city and neighbourhood pages with pricing and proof. Monitor AI Mode availability and test follow-up prompts that reference local constraints.
7. Scenario plans for CTR loss
   Where AI Overviews reduce click-through rates, shift value capture earlier in the user journey. Publish comparison tables, calculators, and buyer guides that are likely to be cited by models. Track assisted conversions from cited pages to ensure visibility is accurately valued.

 

AI SERP changes in 2025 are expected to be lasting. Sustainable strategies should focus on treating inclusion and citations as measurable funnels. Publish extractable answers, update content regularly, clarify entities, and secure credible mentions. Track AI inclusion as a product metric and iterate with intent-level tests to build a compounding advantage through consistent measurement and execution.

 

Sources

AI Overviews Reduce Clicks by 34.5%, Ahrefs, 2025-04-17 – https://ahrefs.com/blog/ai-overviews-reduce-clicks/

New data: Google AI Overviews are hurting click-through rates, Search Engine Land, 2025-04-21 – https://searchengineland.com/google-ai-overviews-hurt-click-through-rates-454428

Google CTRs Drop 32% For Top Result After AI Overview Rollout, Search Engine Journal, 2025-07-21 – https://www.searchenginejournal.com/google-ctrs-drop-32-for-top-result-after-ai-overview-rollout/551730/

Semrush Report: AI Overviews’ Impact on Search in 2025, Semrush, 2025-07-22 – https://www.semrush.com/blog/semrush-ai-overviews-study/

AI Overview Citations Now 54% from Organic Rankings, BrightEdge, 2025-09-18 – https://www.brightedge.com/resources/weekly-ai-search-insights/rank-overlap-after-16-months-of-aio

AI Overview Analysis & Study: Updated September 2025, Conductor, 2025-09-01 – https://www.conductor.com/academy/ai-overviews-analysis/

AI Overviews are available in over 200 countries and territories and more than 40 languages. Google, 2025-05-21 – https://blog.google/products/search/ai-overview-expansion-may-2025-update/.

AI Mode in Google Search: Updates from Google I/O 2025, Google, 2025-05-20 – https://blog.google/products/search/google-search-ai-mode-update/

AI Features and Your Website, Google Search Central, 2025-06-19 – https://developers.google.com/search/docs/appearance/ai-features

Introducing Copilot Search in Bing, Bing Search Blog, 2025-04-04 – https://blogs.bing.com/search/April-2025/Introducing-Copilot-Search-in-Bing

Microsoft officially launches Copilot Search in Bing, Search Engine Land, 2025-04-04 – https://searchengineland.com/microsoft-officially-launches-copilot-search-in-bing-453958

Artificial intelligence: Le Monde signs partnership agreement with Perplexity, Le Monde, 2025-05-14 – https://www.lemonde.fr/en/about-us/article/2025/05/14/artificial-intelligence-le-monde-signs-partnership-agreement-with-perplexity_6741262_115.html

Google’s test turns Search results into an AI-generated podcast, The Verge, 2025-07-03 – https://www.theverge.com/news/686904/google-audio-overviews-ai-podcast-search.

New Study: AI Assistants Prefer to Cite “Fresher” Content, Ahrefs, 2025-08-12 – https://ahrefs.com/blog/do-ai-assistants-prefer-to-cite-fresh-content/

How Different AI Search Engines Choose Which Brands to Recommend, BrightEdge, 2025-09-05 – https://www.brightedge.com/resources/weekly-ai-search-insights/how-different-ai-search-engines-choose-which-brands-to-recommend

Data Shows Google AIO Is Citing Deeper Into Websites, Search Engine Journal, 2025-04-05 – https://www.searchenginejournal.com/data-shows-google-aio-is-citing-deeper-into-websites/543325/

Google rolls out advanced AI Mode in South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya, TechCentral, 2025-08-21 – https://techcentral.co.za/google-rolls-out-advanced-ai-mode-in-south-africa-nigeria-and-kenya/268933/

Google Search: Introducing AI Mode in Africa, Google Africa, 2025-08-21 – https://blog.google/intl/en-africa/products/explore-get-answers/google-search-introducing-ai-mode-in-africa/

 

Q&A

What are the most significant AI SERP changes in 2025 and their CTR impact?
AI Overviews push direct answers above classic results, cutting top-result CTR on informational queries by 34.5 % and shifting user behaviour toward zero-click patterns.

How often do Google AI Overviews appear and where?
Semrush reported a 13.14 % prevalence, with an informational skew, and Google expanded its availability to more than 200 countries and over 40 languages.

What signals increase inclusion and citations in AI Overviews?
Recency, precise entities with structured data, extractable passages, and credible branded mentions raise citation likelihood.

How should African SMEs track AI-first Search visibility across Google, Bing Copilot, and Perplexity?
Monitor AIO inclusion rate, citation share by engine, time to first citation, CTR by layout, local coverage rate, and brand mention velocity.